'Uncharted Territory': New Study Warns World Will Likely Exceed 1.5°C Temperature Limit Within Five Years

EAT

May 24

According to the report, there is a 66 percent chance of surpassing the 1.5C threshold during at least one year within the timeframe of 2023 to 2027.

*Credit: Jo-Anne McArthur/We Animals Media*

The world is very likely set to breach the critical temperature limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the next five years, warns a new study.

Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, countries agreed to long-term goals for governments to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Surpassing that crucial threshold would result in progressively devastating climate impacts for consequences for humanity, ecosystems, and animals. These impacts include accelerated melting of sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels, and intensified occurrences of extreme weather events.

Now, the alarming findings show there is a 66 percent chance we will pass this 1.5C temperature tipping point at least once between 2023 and 2027. The impacts of crossing this threshold, although severe, should be temporary, according to research from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), with scientists stressing that there is still time to limit global warming if we curb emissions sharply.

However, it does launch the world into “uncharted territory” and highlights that climate warming is accelerating drastically rather than slowing down. So far, the global temperature has never gone 1.28°C above pre-industrial levels.

Sounding the Alarm

Prof Petteri Taalas, the secretary general of the WMO, said: “This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5C specified in the Paris agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years.

“However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.”

A continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions from human activities and the El Niño weather phenomenon are increasing temperatures across the world.

El Niño is a climate cycle which sees the surface waters of the East Pacific Ocean rise, resulting in a domino effect on temperatures and rainfall levels across the world. For the past three years, the world has been in the opposite weather pattern: La Niña, which reduces temperatures by around three degrees.

With this La Niña coming to an end and the next El Niño arriving, there is a 98 percent chance that the world will experience the hottest year on record during this period, according to scientists.

“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory. This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment, and we need to be prepared.”

But according to the Climate Action Tracker, not a single country has implemented policies that would effectively keep global temperatures below the 1.5°C threshold, with current emission levels set to propel the world towards an surge of 2.8°C by the end of 2100.

What We Eat Matters

These latest findings come on the heels of a report published in the Nature Climate Change journal, which revealed that global food production alone will add nearly 1 °C to warming by the end of the century.

As per the report, a staggering 75 percent of this predicted warming is driven by just three foods: ruminant meat, dairy, and rice.

Animal agriculture is the primary cause of deforestation worldwide and contributes to approximately 14 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions. Industrial livestock farming accounts for about 70 percent of global antibiotic usage, and a quarter of all human diseases have origins in agriculture.

In the past six decades, global meat production has more than tripled, with 70 billion land animals slaughtered annually for human consumption. And these numbers are predicted to continue to increase dramatically. Estimates indicate that by 2050, annual meat production could range between 460 to 570 billion kilograms.

This latest warning that we are set to breach the 1.50 °C threshold reinforces the findings of previous studies on climate change which also suggest the need to reduce our meat intake and increase our consumption of plant-based protein.

What we eat matters. Do you think you could embrace plant-based living for 7 days? We do. Sign up for the Species Unite 7-Day Vegan Challenge to discover a whole new world, from recipes that will trick your most carnivorous friends to shoes, boots, and bags made from some of the most magical plants on the planet. Take part here!

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