Meat and Dairy Will Contribute More Than 50% of Future Food-Related Global Warming - Report

EAT

Mar 13

New study shows that global food production alone will add nearly 1 °C to warming by 2100 - but also outlines how four collective and individual actions can help halve emissions.

Credit: Milos Bicanski / We Animals Media

Global food consumption alone could add nearly 1 °C to the planet’s warming by 2100, according to a new study that examines future global emissions.

And a staggering 75 percent of this predicted warming is driven by just three foods: ruminant meat, dairy, and rice.

These figures would break the iconic Paris Agreement, which agreed to long-term goals for governments to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C. According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, surpassing 1.5 °C of warming would result in climate impacts becoming increasingly harmful for the people and planet. This would include sea ice and glaciers continuing to melt, sea levels continuing to rise, and weather becoming more extreme.

Published in the Nature Climate Change journal, the startling research also focuses on solutions: 55 percent of anticipated warming can be avoided by implementing sustainable practises within the global food system.

"By understanding which food items and greenhouse gases contribute most to future warming, we can address these emissions with targeted strategies which both reduce future climate change and promote food security”, explains lead author Catherine Ivanovich, Ph.D. candidate at Columbia University.

Four key methods for emissions mitigation are presented in the study:

Improving agricultural production provides 25% of the mitigation potential
Decarbonizing the energy sector provides 17% of the mitigation potential because of the energy used to produce, process and transport food
Shifting diets based on health recommendations provides 21% of the mitigation potential
Reducing consumer food waste provides 5% of the mitigation potential

Improving the efficiency of production and decarbonizing the energy sector will both rely on government and industry efforts. The third and fourth methods will also, but the shift to healthier diets is an aspect that can be engaged at an individual level too.

Surpassing 1.5 °C of warming would result in climate impacts becoming increasingly harmful for the people and planet. Credit Jo-Anne McArthur

Essentially, the study’s global modelling shows that even just implementing smaller dietary changes only in the regions that currently dominate the consumption of high-emission food, like the United States and Spain, then it would result in a decrease in overall global emissions regardless of increases in developing nations.

So what does a “diet based on health recommendations” look like? The study states such a diet would have a lower intake of red meat (beef and pork, about one serving per week), and the limited consumption of fish, poultry and eggs (up to two servings each per day).

If this healthier diet was taken on globally - then warming due to food consumption could be decreased further by 0.19 °C by 2100.

“Solutions will look different around the world, but we should work together with the shared goal of stabilizing the climate and ensuring people and nature thrive on a changing planet." said Ilissa Ocko, co-author and Senior Climate Scientist at EDF.

Eating for the Planet

This latest research reinforces the findings of previous studies on climate change which also suggest the need to reduce our meat intake and increase our consumption of plant-based protein.

A global shift towards a vegan diet is necessary to combat the worst effects of climate change, according to the United Nations, and research from the University of Oxford shows that going vegan is the “single biggest way” to reduce your impact on the planet.

Research like this is leading wildlife experts and climate change campaigners - from Greta Thunberg to David Attenborough - to urge us all to reconsider our habits and diets to help lessen the impact of climate change.

What we eat matters. Do you think you could embrace plant-based living for 7 days? We do. Sign up for the Species Unite 7-Day Vegan Challenge to discover a whole new world, from recipes that will trick your most carnivorous friends to shoes, boots, and bags made from some of the most magical plants on the planet. Take part here!

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